2026 Oscar Predictions - October 2025

Okay, this is my first time taking on a task like this, so please bear with me. I’m giving Oscar predictions a shot, and this is just gonna be a lot of fun! It’s a long one, though. Each category is in order of likely nomination, not alphabetical or anything.

I really don’t have a lot to say for each category, but up here, I’ll talk about some changes that I think could happen. A lot of the technical categories are sort of in flux right now for me because there are a lot of variables. In terms of visuals effects, we obviously know that Avatar: Fire and Ash is winning, but it’s mainly the other nominees that could be interesting. I have Superman and Fantastic Four getting in, but I also have F1 in too. F1 could really fall out, though, and I think either Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning or TRON: Ares could probably take its place. The presence of Wicked: For Good is something I’m still on the fence about. Unless it’s just as praised as Part One last year, I think it’ll have a lower showing this time. It happens with sequels, like what happened with Dune: Part Two. Casting is also a brand new category and it’ll be interesting to see what happens there.

If you want any of my reasons for why I have one movie over another, shoot me a comment at the bottom of this post! I want to be more active here with my readers, so engage if you want to. I also have my win counts listed at the bottom too, just to keep track of how I think each movie will do. It’s also just to keep a track record and see how I do when we get closer and closer to the ceremony.

__________________________________________________

Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another [Warner Bros.]
2. Sinners [Warner Bros.]
3. Hamnet [Focus Features]
4. Sentimental Value [Neon]
5. Marty Supreme [A24]
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere [20th Century Studios]
7. Wicked: For Good [Universal]
8. Frankenstein [Netflix]
9. Bugonia [Focus Features]
10. A House of Dynamite [Netflix]

Best Director
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
5. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein

Best Actress
1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
3. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
4. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Actor
1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
3. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
5. George Clooney – Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actress
1. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
2. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
3. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
4. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor
1. Paul Mescal – Hamnet
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgaard – Sentimental Value
4. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
5. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay
1. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
2. Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
3. Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer – Jay Kelly
4. Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein – Marty Supreme
5. Noah Oppenheim – A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet
3. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
4. Rian Johnson – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-hi, Lee Ja-hye & Don McKellar – No Other Choice

Best Casting
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best International Feature
1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Documentary Feature
1. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. The Perfect Neighbor
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. Seeds

Best Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

Best Cinematography
1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

Best Editing
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Marty Supreme

Best Production Design
1. Frankenstein
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design
1. Hamnet

2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Frankenstein
5. Bugonia

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Frankenstein
2. The Smashing Machine
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sinners
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5. F1

Best Sound
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score
1. Ludwig Göransson - Sinners
2. Daniel Blumberg - The Testament of Ann Lee
3. Jonny Greenwood - One Battle After Another
4. Jerskin Fendrix - Bugonia
5. Alexandre Desplat - Frankenstein

Best Original Song
1. “Golden” - KPop Demon Hunters
2. “I Lied To You” - Sinners
3. “No Place Like Home” - Wicked: For Good
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” - Wicked: For Good
5. Untitled Bruce Springsteen Song - Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

__________________________________________________

Projected Wins
Sinners — 5
One Battle After Another — 4
Hamnet — 3
Frankenstein — 2
KPop Demon Hunters — 2
Avatar: Fire and Ash — 1
Sentimental Value — 1
Marty Supreme — 1
Wicked: For Good — 1

Projected Nominations [more than one nomination]
Sinners — 13
One Battle After Another — 11
Wicked: For Good — 10
Hamnet — 9
Sentimental Value — 9
Frankenstein – 8
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere – 7
Marty Supreme — 6
Bugonia — 4
Jay Kelly — 3
The Testament of Ann Lee — 3
Avatar: Fire and Ash — 2
A House of Dynamite — 2
KPop Demon Hunters — 2
No Other Choice — 2
The Smashing Machine — 2
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery — 2